7/05/2010

Agriculturals prove to be as unpredictable as the weather

Agriculturals proved once again why they're as unpredictable as the weather this week.

By Rowena Mason
Published: 9:45PM BST 04 Jul 2010
In particular, the hedge funds might not have called it quite so wrong on corn, if they had watched what's going on outside the window a bit more closely. The grain's price had dropped 20pc this year on good weather in April, suggesting a bumper year of record crops.
This led funds to reverse their net longs and bet that the price of corn would fall on a report from the Chicago Board of Trade, which was set to reveal planting data on Wednesday.
The speculators therefore took a net short position of 39,426 contacts, meaning that early in the week, the price for corn was languishing at around $3.25 per bushel – near the lows of last September's $3 mark.
But they didn't bargain on the planting data showing that around 1m fewer acres had been seeded than previously thought after poor weather in a wet May.
The US Department of Agriculture put the recent decline in planting down to falling temperatures "hampering the planting of the remaining acreage and threatening emerged plants".
At the same time, stockpiles in the warehouses were falling at a much faster rate than last year. Around half of the world's corn comes from the US and it is used for everything from animal feed to oils. One of the longer-term reasons why stocks are falling is the rising use of corn for motor fuels.
These factors caused the biggest one day rise for corn since 1988, which shot up 10pc by Friday, as funds appeared to sell off energy and metals futures to cover their short positions.
Meanwhile, something was afoot in the wheat market as well, driven unsurprisingly by more unexpected weather changes. The concern has been for hot weather in Russia, damaging the crops. Estimated stocks of wheat have swung around unpredictably from more than 100m tons, compared with 97m last year, to what looks like could now be 82m tons if the drought continues.
It came as the commodity market was still reeling from the emergence of a short squeeze in coffee the previous week.
These rising prices had been caused when hedge funds were forced to deliver on contracts they had sold in recent years betting on a fall in coffee prices. It caused a mini-price boom, with investors piling in to take advantage of a 12-year high.
Beneath the scramble of technical buyers, the weather was once again responsible for the shift in coffee's fortunes, as a rise in demand coincided with a predicted 30pc fall in Arabica crops.
These sharp movements and their root causes need to be watched carefully by agriculture investors, says Simon Denham, chief executive of Capital Spreads.
"The only time that softs get into the headlines is when there is a major event (generally a short squeeze) such as is currently occurring in coffee. Sugar went through the same process through 2009 where the price rallied from $310 all the way up to $767, which is the equivalent of oil rallying from the current price all the way up to $190. It's ditto corn in 2008 and wheat in 2007. The one unifying item in each of these events, however, is that the price eventually moves back down pretty much to the starting point. This is logical insofar as these are all grown products and if the future price suddenly doubles then farmers will simply increase the yield in that market more, driving the price back down again."
Longer-term supply and demand trends are one reason why agriculturals can reap steady rewards for investors.
This year, soft commodities have fared badly in comparison with the stellar rises of metal futures. But the sector survived last week's sell-off in energy and metals very well.
According to analysts from Commerzbank, it's partly because they are less sensitive to the effects of a potential second-dip recession.
"Contrary to industrial commodities, agricultural products turn out not to be so dependent on the economy," they said. "This is why they could profit from the weak US dollar."
Many commodity analysts favour agriculturals because of people's need to eat, regardless of the economic austerity.
The longer-term trend of population growth means planting will struggle to keep up with demand, while the effects of climate change mean weather patterns are going to become even more erratic and extreme in future – to the probable detriment of crops.
The United Nations forecasts that the world population will exceed 9bn by 2050, up from about 6.1bn now. The population of developed nations is expected to rise to 1.28bn from 1.23bn, but the number of people in developing nations is expected to leap to 7.9bn from 5.6bn. All of these mouths will need to be fed.
Perhaps the most important factor relates to meat consumption. Richer people eat more meat – and this has a disproportionate effect on agriculture. It has been calculated that, to make one tonne of meat, it takes seven tonnes of corn – plus 7,000 gallons of water. As a society develops and gets richer the demand for grain goes through the roof as more meat is consumed.
This doesn't mean investors should take their eye off the short term. In corn, for example, the good weather in April, replaced by the bad weather in May, is now set to be superceded by good weather again for the rest of the summer. All the talk is now of potentially record yields from the smaller planted area – so beware more sharp price swings as investors jostle to adjust to the likely crop for this year.
Gold: investors take fright at commodity sell-off
Gold bulls had a temporary scare when the market suddenly crashed – before recovering slightly to end the week down 3.5pc.
It lost $40 to $1210 over the week, as investors took fright at the overall commodity sell-off and began to take profit.
At one point on Thursday it had plunged below the symbolic $1200 mark. The 4pc drop marked the biggest one day decline in four months.
The precious metal was under pressure amid renewed talk about a possible double-dip recession and of potential deflation. Some analysts put gold's weakness partly down to aggressive unwinding of the previously popular "long gold, short euro" trade.

Commodity Funds Trade More, Extend Bets to Fight for Index Money, Man Says

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen - Jul 2, 2010

Commodity hedge funds are trading more frequently and making bets for later in the future to avoid “getting whipped” by index funds, according to Edwin Garcia, a manager at Man Group Plc, the largest publicly traded hedge-fund company.

Assets under management at index-tracking funds rose 71 percent to $111 billion by the end of May from December 2008, according to Barclays Capital. That “influx of the index money” contributed to price swings in nearby futures, prompting hedge funds to trade more later-dated contracts, Garcia said.

“What the index money has done, it meant hedge funds have had to adjust their trading strategies,” Garcia said in a phone interview on June 29. “Where the managers have strong fundamental views, they are expressing their view further out the curve to avoid getting whipped in the front end.”

Commodity hedge funds lost 4.9 percent in the first five months on average, after declining about 3 percent in 2009, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index tracking the net amount investors received dropped 12 percent from January through May.

Hedge funds are also using more options, Garcia said. On the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest marketplace of copper and aluminum, trading in options contracts for the six major industrial metals soared 64 percent in May from the same month last year, according to figures on the exchange’s website.

Man Commodity Strategies Ltd., with $1 billion under management in commodity and energy funds, declined 2.7 percent in the first five months, according to information from Garcia. The annual return has been 9.3 percent since the fund started in October 2003. Man Group has $39 billion in assets.

Garcia has been with Man for 11 years, with six years as a portfolio manager. He manages five funds of funds, including Dexion Commodities.

7/03/2010

Pension funds – future farmers

IPE Magazine – 1 July 2010

Author: Pirkko Juntunen

Pirkko Juntunen records the growing popularity of farmland investment in the developing world

Farmland investing is a phenomenon which has created a lot of controversy and debate. Critics argue that it is a form of colonialism and a land-grab designed to benefit foreign owner’s needs for produce, leaving the indigenous peoples poorer and draining vital resources. Deals, say the critics, are done with governments that do not represent the interests of their people, with local residents bullied off their land. Much of the controversy has come through the involvement of sovereign wealth funds, whereas pension funds have avoided these criticisms.

Those in favour of farmland investing argue that, done correctly, it brings improved resource and land management, improved farming techniques and technology, education and much needed foreign direct investment (FDI) and cash. Many argue that, where foreign investors and local people have a stake in an investment any benefits for the local economy are going to be larger, more sustained and established quicker than foreign aid.

It is inevitable, however, that the worst examples have come under the spotlight. These have involved governments of often undemocratic nations buying or leasing vast areas of land only to grow food using their own labour and export it back to their own countries, without much consideration of the impact on the local people or environment.

Richard Warburton, partner and head of agribusiness at Bidwells Agribusiness, a provider of consultancy and management services, says: “Some unscrupulous deals have taken place. Often in the developing world governments cannot regulate the activities; it is often a question of formal versus informal governance, which leads to conflicts.”

So should institutional investors invest in this asset class at all? What guarantees do they have that it is done in accordance with their responsible investment principles? What about other issues such as land expropriation, coups or war?

The case for farmland is becoming popular as pension fund returns come under pressure from falling returns and slow economic growth. Real assets work as inflation hedges, as in the case of gold and agriculture or food. In the case of agricultural commodities, the prices are driven by issues such as declining global food inventories, rapidly increasing population, the restricted supply of arable land, as well as demand for biofuels. In addition, as countries grow richer their dietary requirements change, with demand for meat increasing. Furthermore, in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, cheap prime farmland yields world-class returns.

At the same time investment returns are not strictly linked to land prices, but to the produce (ie, cashflow) and in the case of private equity funds, the exit strategy as well. Headline numbers of 15-25% annual returns is also something any pension fund would want to explore. These characteristics have caught the interest of Dutch and Nordic funds.

Warburton says farmland is an asset class that provides new opportunities and new risks. Despite the liquidity and scale issues, as evident in Eastern Europe, he has no doubt that the standards will improve and it will become a serious asset class for the institutional market.

Jos Lemmens, senior portfolio manager in the commodities team at APG Asset Management, which manages the assets of Dutch pension fund ABP, says: “For investors with a long-term horizon it is clear that only sustainable investments will yield the highest long-term results. When investing in farmland, it makes no sense to exhaust and deplete the land with unsustainable practices geared towards short-term gains. It is in the investor’s interest to upgrade the land and use sustainable practices.

“Equally, it makes no sense to antagonise the local populace. They will probably provide the workforce and [some] of the final demand for the product. In many cases, investors would have an incentive to provide education and healthcare to the local workforce. In a few selected cases the workforce might even provide a viable exit for the investor by being able to buy the asset at the end of the investment horizon. For APG, it just makes very good business sense to invest in an ecologically and socially sound manner.”

Gary Vaughan-Smith, founding partner at Silver Street, an alternative asset specialist, adds: “The implementation of conservation farming techniques creates sustainable farming businesses, higher crop yields and improved environmental protection. We also have a pro-active programme to train smaller-scale subsistence farmers in these techniques to help improve their yields and lower environmental impact. This programme improves the lives and wealth of subsistence farmers and has a high social impact.”

Paul Christie, head of marketing at Emergent Asset Management, a specialist in alternative assets, says that it is vital to recognise all stakeholders, not just investors. Investment philosophy must be adapted so that objectives are achieved for all the groups involved, be they governmental, private or others. “Informed consent is the key in farmland investing,” he says.

Other Dutch investors are following suit, as are the AP funds in Sweden and Danish funds. In addition, government development finance companies such as FinnFund in Finland, as well as those in Nordic countries, Germany and Switzerland, are teaming up with pension funds and specialist asset managers to invest in the sector. The reputational risk of being caught up in any, even seemingly, unethical business would be enormous.

“In monitoring our investments we employ high standards of corporate governance in order to preserve our clients’ interests,” says Lemmens. “Equally, we require the managers of our farmland investments to adhere to our ethical standards. Investments that do not meet our environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria will be excluded. It goes without saying that we would never be knowingly involved in forced evictions or depriving local people from any other basic needs. Our selection process for new investments pays special attention towards such social and environmental issues. If at all possible, we have a preference for investments that actively seek to be involved in projects with a high ESG signature.”

Christie has been involved in creating a Voluntary Standards Board with the World Bank. “It is possible for investors to make money but at the same time support the local farmers and self-regulation is the best way,” he comments.

The Food & Agricultural Organization of the UN (FAO) is currently working on guidelines for the farmland investment sector. The guidelines cover the full range of land governance issues – not just large-scale agricultural investments but all land. The guidelines are being developed in an open partnership, with core documentation, expert meetings and a substantial series of regional consultations. The purpose of the consultations is to reach consensus on key issues and, following their completion in September, there will be a period of drafting and e-consultation. The guidelines are expected to be completed in 2011 and implemented from 2012.

In addition to voluntary standards and FAO guidelines, the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) also supports and guarantees agri-business on a case-by-case basis. Vaughan-Smith says that it is an extra layer of safety for investors against expropriation and other risks and the advantage of being backed by a supranational is that they provide support and mediation in any case of conflict.
SilverStreet focuses on large-scale commercial farming and technical support for small-scale farmers – its Luxembourg-registered $300m (€244m) fund aims for a 15-20% annual return. The fund is a private equity structure with an exit strategy possibly through an IPO.

Vaughan-Smith says institutional and governmental investors demand high ESG standards for the sector, and that SilverStreet incorporates their requirements and codes into its legal documents. “We differ from other investors in that we buy existing farms and develop them to their full potential. In addition, the produce is intended primarily for the local population so we concentrate on high population areas, which lowers transport costs. This is a different strategy to grabbing big chunks of land to develop export production.”

7/02/2010

Anchor Point Launches Commodity Fund Of Funds

Jul 2 2010 | 11:27am ET

Anchor Point Capital is branching out with a fund of commodities hedge fund.

The new fund is Anchor Point’s third, following its global macro and hedged equity vehicles. The $121 million firm netted $18 million from institutional investors for the launch, including a large university endowment and a private foundation, according to Pensions & Investments.

The Anchor Point fund features 11 underlying managers. It includes both general commodity funds and sector specialists, the firm told investors in a letter.

Afrique : Bill Gates offre 120 millions $ pour l'agriculture

24-10-2009
La Fondation Bill et Melinda Gates a fait un don de 120 millions de dollars pour le développement de plusieurs projets agricoles et de sécurité alimentaire en Afrique.

Le fondateur de Microsoft, Bill Gates, a annoncé cette initiative lors du Symposium pour le Prix mondial de l'alimentation, qui s'est tenu dans l'Iowa, aux Etats-Unis.

Le milliardaire américain a souligné, que « si nous pouvons aider un petit producteur africain à être davantage productif et ainsi gagner plus d'argent, nous allons ainsi faire des pas de géants dans la lutte contre la faim et la pauvreté dans le monde. »

L'organisation de développement Alliance pour une révolution verte en Afrique (AGRA), l'une des organisations bénéficiaires de ce don, a annoncé avoir reçu 15 millions de dollars pour soutenir des politiques agricoles dans cinq pays africains, l'Ethiopie, le Ghana, le Mali, le Mozambique et la Tanzanie.

Duet Group Launch The Duet Commodities Fund

posted by hallty on Thursday 1 Jul 2010 12:18 GMT

Duet Group, the global financial group specializing in Alternative Asset Management is delighted to announce the launch of the “Duet Commodities Fund” on the 1 July 2010.


Tony Hall, Chief Investment Officer of the “Duet Commodities Fund”, will be managing the Fund with his team of product specialists who will be focusing on Metals and Agricultural Trading whilst Tony will focus on Energy. Tony is a high calibre professional who brings over 10 years of experience. Prior to joining Duet Group, Tony was Global Head of Distillates Oil Trading at Credit Suisse-Glencore from 2008 to 2010, looking at opportunities in the commodities derivatives market. His approach was directional and option-based. From 2001 to 2008 Tony worked for Deutsche Bank where he was Global Head of Middle Distillate Oil Trading and previously a Macro Proprietary Trader. During this time he traded a portfolio of FX, Commodities and Fixed Income products consisting of spot, forward, futures and options positions.

Tony obtained a BSc Honours degree in Economics from the University Of Bath specialising in Econometrics, Mathematical Economics, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Arno Pilz, Head of Metals Trading of the “Duet Commodities Fund”, will be in charge of Metals Trading globally. Arno brings with him over 16 years of trading experience. Prior to joining, Arno was Global Head of Metals Trading at both Lehman Brothers and UBS. He also brings with him many years of experience in G10 and Emerging Markets FX derivatives trading. His approach was both directional and relative value based.

Arno obtained a MPhil in Management Studies from Oxford University as well as a BTech from the University of Limerick.

The “Duet Commodities Fund” will focus on detecting superior sources of returns in all commodities with emphasis on energy, metals and foreign exchange. A fundamental approach is used with macro-economic and physical market information, combined with various technical market indicators to generate fair values, forecasts and trading signals for commodity prices.

Alain Schibl, Co-Founder of Duet Group, says: “We believe in the long term attractiveness of investing in commodities particularly in current market volatility which offers opportunities to generate high returns. We are delighted by the launch of this Fund and to have the addition of such a talented and experienced individual to run it. We believe that having a Commodity Fund is significant in taking the firm to the next stage.”

Tony Hall, CIO of the “Duet Commodities Fund”, added: “I am delighted to be joining one of the most dynamic Alternative Investment firms. I believe that we have an edge that will help differentiate us through our extensive network, ability to understand today’s market, access a solid global infrastructure, an in-depth understanding of all of the variables impacting prices and an excellent reputation in forecasting macro trends.”

For more information please contact: Anahita Firouzbakht;

afirouzbakht@duetgroup.net; +44 (0)20 7290 9800

7/01/2010

Galena Up 4.2% In May As Most Commodity Funds Swoon

Jul 1 2010 | 11:51am ET

Galena Asset Management bucked the commodities hedge fund trend in May with a big gain, while most its fellow commodity hedge funds suffered drawdowns.

London-based Galena’s $700 million commodity fund jumped 4.2% in May, its best return of the year. While the average commodity fund dropped by more than 1.5% on the month, Galena saw its bullish bet on gold and bearish bet on copper pay off. The fund is now up 8% on the year, Bloomberg News reports.

By contrast, BlueGold Capital Management lost 12.5% in May, Armajaro Asset Management lost 8.8%, Clive Capital lost 6%, and Touradji Capital Management lost about 5%.