5/28/2009

Eurex to launch four agricultural futures in July

Hedgeweek
Thu, 28 May 2009


The international derivatives exchange Eurex is expanding its product range to include the agricultural products asset class.

Trading will start in July 2009 with four new futures based on the agricultural products hogs, piglets and potato crops (London potatoes and European processing potatoes).

All four futures are settled in cash. Market price indices act as underlyings which aim to increase market transparency.

Peter Reitz, member of the Eurex executive board, says: 'Our entry into the segment of agricultural derivatives is the systematic continuation of our strategy of covering all important asset classes with our own products. We aim to bring the well known advantages of our global network and central clearing system into this market that has had a strong national focus thus far. The strengths of the Eurex business model will accelerate international growth in this segment considerably.'

Plans are underway to expand the product offering of agricultural derivatives in 2010.

Hedge Funds Bet Most Since August on Commodities

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are making the biggest bet in nine months that commodity prices will rise as the global economy rebounds from its steepest slump since World War II.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows an index of the net long position in U.S. commodity futures, or bets prices will rise, held by hedge funds and other large speculators. The index, consisting of 20 raw materials monitored by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rose to its highest since August.

The gain “indicates further willingness for investors to take on asset classes which they were earlier cautious of,” said Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. The index plunged from a peak of 1.37 million in February last year to as little as 86,220 in December.

Sugar and corn had the largest net-long positions by the week ended May 19, while investors held the largest net-short positions in natural gas and copper.

“Agricultural products are not going to be as vulnerable to the current economic retrenchment as things like metals or oil,” Norrish said.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 raw materials rose 6.3 percent this year, after a 36 percent decline in 2008.

(To save a copy of the chart, click here.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at

5/18/2009

Impax AUM down 19 pct, cautiously optimistic on H2

05/13/2009 HedgeWorld


* Cites weak equity markets

* H1 profit before tax falls to 1.3 mln stg

* Aims to maintain annual dividend of 0.35p/shr

* Sees expansion opportunities in Asia


(Adds CEO's, COO's comments, updates share movement)

By Shivani Singh

BANGALORE, May 13 (Reuters) - Environmental investment manager Impax Group Plc said assets under management declined 19 percent in the first half of its financial year due to weak equity markets but it is cautiously optimistic about the second half.

"We are pleased with the last six months and cautiously optimistic about the next period and very optimistic about the medium to long term," Chief Executive Ian Simm told Reuters in an interview.

Impax invests in sectors such as renewable energy, water treatment and waste management that may benefit from government environmental initiatives globally.

The company said assets under management fell to 889 million pounds ($1.35 billion) as of March 31 from 1.10 billion pounds on Sept. 30, but had recovered to 986 million pounds by April 30.

Net outflows were about 48 million pounds in the period, characterised by "a small percentage of reductions in investments (by clients) rather than clients walking away completely," Chief Operating Officer Charlie Ridge told Reuters.

Impax posted a first-half profit before tax of 1.3 million pounds, hurt by an increase in operating costs. It reported a profit of 1.6 million pounds before tax a year ago.

Revenue rose 11 percent to 5.5 million pounds, including exceptional non-recurring fees of 945,620 pounds, for the six months ended March 31.

Impax, which paid a 0.35 pence maiden annual dividend for the year to last September, plans to maintain the dividend at the same levels as last year, CEO Simm said.

The company did not propose an interim dividend as it plans to have a single annual dividend subject to market conditions.


EXPANSION PLANS

Impax, which has 32 employees, plans to add another 10 to 15 people in London over the next couple of years, CEO Simm said.

The company expects to grow organically and is not actively looking at acquisitions as a strategy for growth.

Its funds, including Impax Environmental Markets Plc , have the capacity to double the amount of money they manage, Simm said.

Impax, which has operations in London and Hong Kong, associates in Europe and partners in the United States and Japan, expects to expand activities in Asia over the next 12 months.

The company is in discussions regarding research and distribution opportunities including selling funds to Indian nationals, institutions and non-resident Indians with a financial institution in India, Simm said.

At 1230 GMT, shares of Impax were up 5 percent at 25 pence on the London Stock Exchange. The shares have gained about 19 percent in the past six months.

($1=.6582 Pound) (Editing by Mike Miller)

((shivani.singh@thomsonreuters.com; +91 80 4135 5800; Reuters Messaging: shivani.singh.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: IMPAX/

Investir dans l’énergie reste attrayant

Le Temps - Par Youri Vorobiev*
Même en phase de baisse des cours du brut, l’efficience énergétique et la sécurité de l’approvisionnement rendent les placements dans les énergies alternatives attrayants
Les cours élevés du pétrole sont considérés comme un motif d’investissement dans les énergies alternatives. Depuis son record historique l’été dernier, le prix du baril a reculé d’environ deux tiers. La perte de compétitivité qui s’en est suivie pour les énergies alternatives a remis en cause les investissements dans ce secteur.

Efficience: potentiel élevé

Sous l’angle des coûts, les technologies telles que l’énergie solaire, éolienne et hydraulique sont nettement moins intéressantes que les énergies conventionnelles. Toutefois, les entreprises spécialisées dans l’efficience énergétique représentent aussi un segment au sein du secteur de l’énergie. Ces entreprises basent leur activité sur un constat: 80% de l’énergie produite est perdue avant même d’être utilisée. Par conséquent, la réduction des pertes d’énergie au cours de la production, de la transformation, du transport et de la consommation peut considérablement améliorer la consommation et les coûts de l’énergie, même lorsque le pétrole est bon marché. Les entreprises qui cherchent à optimiser la production d’énergie ou la transformation de l’électricité et son transport offrent donc un potentiel considérable.

La sécurité énergétique est aussi un thème majeur. Comment couvrir les besoins croissants en énergie de la planète et réduire les risques de rupture d’approvisionnement? La réponse à cette question est à rechercher du côté de la diversification et trouve sa source dans les facteurs qui mettent en péril la sécurité énergétique. En effet, la forte concentration des ressources d’énergie fossiles constitue l’un des plus grands risques à cet égard: les réserves d’énergie conventionnelle se situent dans un nombre limité de pays. Ainsi, les pays membres de l’OPEP disposent des trois quarts des réserves de pétrole mondiales contre 7% pour les pays de l’OCDE qui consomment pourtant 60% du pétrole produit. La situation est similaire pour le gaz dont plus de la moitié des réserves se concentre dans trois pays: Russie, Iran et Qatar alors que les pays de l’OCDE monopolisent plus de 50% de la consommation mondiale.

Quelques grands pays de l’UE ont pris l’entière mesure de cette dépendance en décembre dernier lorsque le conflit autour du gaz qui a opposé l’Ukraine à la Russie a entraîné une rupture de l’approvisionnement en gaz en plein hiver. La concentration des réserves d’énergie conventionnelles constitue l’un des principaux risques pour la sécurité énergétique mondiale. Toutefois, la menace croissante que représente le changement climatique n’est pas non plus négligeable. Les conditions climatiques extrêmes qui, selon les experts, n’iront qu’en s’aggravant, sont un risque à prendre très au sérieux. Les récentes catastrophes climatiques ont démontré toute l’importance de la garantie de la sécurité énergétique qui sera assurée au mieux en diversifiant les sources d’énergie et en ayant recours à des technologies plus efficientes. Dans ce contexte, les ressources renouvelables telles que l’eau, le vent, le soleil ou la biomasse jouent un rôle essentiel. Certes, ces sources d’énergie ne remplaceront pas les formes traditionnelles d’énergie à court ou moyen terme, mais un mix d’énergies pourra contribuer à la sécurité énergétique.

Cherté du brut inévitable

L’évolution de l’offre et de la demande en énergie est aussi déterminante pour l’attrait de ces investissements. Les réserves mondiales de ressources limitées telles que le pétrole brut, le gaz naturel ou l’énergie atomique commencent à s’épuiser alors que leur consommation augmente massivement depuis 100 à 150 ans. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) prévoit une hausse de la demande en énergie primaire de 45% d’ici à 2030. La Chine et l’Inde consommeront à elles seules plus de la moitié de cette énergie. L’augmentation des besoins en pétrole dans le monde est essentiellement alimentée par le secteur des transports qui a prouvé par le passé sa quasi-insensibilité aux fluctuations du prix de l’or noir. Une hausse des cours du brut est donc inévitable. Ces perspectives augmentent un peu plus encore l’attrait des investissements dans les énergies renouvelables. Si l’on ajoute à cela la diversification énergétique qui devrait permettre de combler les lacunes de l’offre d’énergies traditionnelles tout en réduisant les risques liés à l’approvisionnement en énergie, le rôle décisif que les énergies alternatives seront amenées à jouer à l’avenir s’en voit particulièrement renforcé.

* Gestionnaire du Vontobel Fund – Global Trend New Power.

5/13/2009

BlueGold, Galena Beat Competing Funds, Commodities

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- BlueGold Capital Management LLP and Galena Asset Management Ltd. extended their winning streak in the first four months, outpacing competing hedge funds and commodities.

Pierre Andurand’s $1.1 billion BlueGold energy fund rose 35 percent through April, two people with direct knowledge of the returns said, declining to be named because the data are confidential. Galena’s $430 million metals fund added 8.6 percent, according to David Mimra, London-based head of sales and marketing.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 6.1 percent this year, rebounding from its worst year in a half century, led by a 68 percent gain in gasoline. Assets in commodity-related indexes and exchange-traded funds advanced $18 billion to $172 billion in the first quarter, according to Barclays Capital.

“As commodity prices now appear to be bottoming, we are seeing an increase in investor interest” in funds not governed by index weightings, said Adam De Chiara, fund manager for Jefferies Asset Management’s commodities unit in Stamford, Connecticut.

BlueGold and Galena’s gains compare with an average four- month advance of 4.2 percent for all hedge funds monitored by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. Hedge funds returned an average of 3.2 percent in April, the best performance in more than three years, according to Eurekahedge Pte.

Thai Kickboxer

The BlueGold fund was started by Andurand, a 32-year-old amateur Thai kickboxer, and Dennis Crema, 49, in February 2008. Both previously worked at commodity trader Vitol Group. BlueGold returned 209 percent last year. Andurand declined to comment.

Galena Asset Management, managed by Jeremy Weir, is the investment unit of Trafigura Beheer BV, the third-largest independent oil trader. The company started an energy hedge fund last month, headed by Claude Lixi, who traded oil options at Morgan Stanley.

Dwight Anderson, the commodities investor who liquidated his main Ospraie Fund last year after losing 39 percent, is planning a comeback with two new hedge funds set to open July 1.

The Ospraie Equity Fund will buy and sell stocks of commodity and basic-materials companies in industries such as chemicals, mining, paper and natural resources, Anderson said in a May 12 letter to investors. The Ospraie Commodity Fund will invest in commodities and related derivatives, according to the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

Hedge Fund

Clive Capital LLP made 3.4 percent in the first four months, according to investors. The London-based hedge fund, managing about $2.3 billion, returned 44 percent last year. The company declined to comment.

The $1.3 billion Merchant Commodity Fund, run by Singapore- based Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd., returned 2 percent in the first four months, according to investors. The fund was founded by former Cargill Inc. traders Michael Coleman and Doug King.

The rebound in commodities is attracting investors again, on optimism that the worst global recession since World War II is improving. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record of almost 1,128 metric tons last month, overtaking Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest gold holding.

“We think the recession is over,” said Jan Loeys, head of global market strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., in an interview in Hong Kong. “Commodities, materials in particular, are going to be benefiting right now as investors actually start to get worried about future inflation.”

Consumer Prices

U.S. consumer prices will advance 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 1.7 percent in 2010, according to as many as 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Most of the funds outpaced returns from the CRB index. Copper has been the second-biggest gainer after gasoline, rising 51 percent, as China increased imports to bolster stockpiles.

Paul Touradji’s Global Resources fund returned 0.4 percent in the first four months, according to two people familiar with the matter. Armel Leslie, an outside spokesman for New York- based Touradji Capital Management LP, which manages $2.6 billion, declined to comment.

Vermillion Asset Management LLC’s $850 million Viridian commodity fund lost about 3.5 percent in the period, according to a person with knowledge of the result. The fund, founded by New York-based Drew Gilbert and Chris Nygaard, started trading in June 2005.

The Krom River Commodity Fund retreated 8.1 percent in the first four months, investors said, citing preliminary estimates from the company. The $550 million fund, started by Chris Brodie in 2006, returned almost 37 percent last year. The Baar, Switzerland-based fund manager declined to comment.

Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers can buy or sell any assets, bet on falling as well as rising prices and participate substantially in profits from money invested.

Blue Marble Launches Cleantech Hedge Fund

May 8, 2009 FinAlternatives

Canadian asset manager Blue Marble Capital Partners is going ‘green’ with the launch of its first hedge fund. The firm has recently unveiled a cleantech-focused hedge fund that will invest in carbon credits and clean technologies.

The new vehicle, the Carbon Alternative Fund, will be managed by Trevor Giles.

Half of the fund, which will invest globally, will be focused on carbon credits and other carbon-related investments, while the remainder will be invested in public and private clean technology companies, or firms that provide raw materials for these companies.

Blue Marble was formed to provide investors with annual absolute return capital appreciation by managing investments that are expected to benefit from a global transition towards carbon constrained societies, the emergence of global carbon markets, and related transitory resource and commodity imbalances, according to the firm’s Web site.

The new fund is open to Canadian and other international investors, but is currently not open to U.S. citizens.

Blue Marble is also in the process of developing what it believes will be Canada's first carbon-linked note and its first carbon-linked bond.

Ionic, Miura Biggest Solar-Focused Hedge Funds

May 12, 2009 FinAlternatives

The hedge fund with the highest exposure to the solar sector is Ionic Capital Management, which holds over 21% of its $207 million of assets in U.S. solar companies, according to HedgeTracker.com, which last week released its list of Top Solar-Focused Hedge Funds.

Ionic’s positions were widely spread across six solar companies: Suntech Power Holdings ($18.3 million); LDK Solar Co. ($10.7 million); Energy Conversion Devices ($5.4 million); Trina Solar ($3.2 million); Solarfun Power Holdings ($3.2 million); and JA Solar Holdings ($2.4 million).

Notably, the hedge fund manager, which has a deep value investment style, had no exposure to First Solar, which was overwhelmingly the favorite among the other four managers on the list.

In fact, Tracer Capital Management, which held 10% of its assets in the solar sector, held all of its solar assets ($19million) in First Solar.

The largest investor on the list is Miura Global Management, a long/short equity manager, which held $86 million or 11.8% of its $726 million in assets in the solar sector. Miura’s positions include FLSR ($55.1 million), LDK ($30 million), and TSL ($0.7 million). Notably, over the 4th quarter of 2008, the firm closed out of four other investments it had in the solar sector, including Yingli Green Energy ($19 million), Solarfun Power ($3.3 million), JA Solar Holdings ($2.8 million), and SunPower Corp. ($2.7 million)

The other two solar-focused hedge funds named are technology-focused Crosslink Capital, which has 9.4% of its $332 million dedicated to the sector, and growth-focused Hellman, Jordan Management with 7.9% of its $216 million allocated to solar companies. For individual investors that don’t have millions to invest, Hellman, Jordan also offers a mutual fund, the Jordan Opportunity Fund.

While the hedge funds are the biggest solar-focused ones, according to the HedgeTracker.com, it is not known how well they are performing in these volatile markets.

Citadel Capital of Egypt May Spend Up to $500 Million

By Mahmoud Kassem

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Citadel Capital, an Egyptian private- equity firm that has $8.3 billion in investments, may spend as much as $500 million in industries including mining and agriculture in the second half as asset prices become more attractive in the Middle East and Africa.

“It could be as little as $50 million and as much as $500 million,” Hisham El-Khazindar, managing director and co-founder of the Cairo-based firm, said in an interview at his office on May 7. Expectations of sellers “are now at reasonable levels vis-à-vis the inflated expectations that may have existed a year, a year and a half ago,” he said.

Private-equity firms are struggling to raise funds as the credit crisis makes it harder to finance acquisitions. The firms have announced $26 billion of acquisitions this year, less than a quarter of the deals led in the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The crisis is also making asset sales less lucrative.

Private-equity investors in the Middle East manage more than $25 billion, Dubai-based buyout firm Abraaj Capital Ltd. said in October. “There is no doubt that the fund-raising environment is more challenging for everyone,” El-Khazindar said. “Whether we’ve bottomed out already or we’re close to bottoming out, it’s very clear that valuations are compelling.”

‘Significant Opportunities’

Citadel, which controls 19 companies operating in the region, will tap the $900 million it raised in the second half of 2008 from investors mostly in the Persian Gulf to fund its spending, he said. The firm will probably use some of the money to finance existing businesses in other industries it works in such as energy, transport and financial services, and may buy distressed companies or publicly traded ones, El-Khazindar said.

“We like industries where we can create players that not only will be significant players at the local regional level but that will also be globally competitive,” he said. “When you look at Egypt, when you look at Algeria, when you look at Libya, when you look at Sudan but being mindful of sanctions etc., when you look at Ethiopia, Syria, Iraq, there are very significant opportunities.”

Citadel secured 250,000 acres of agricultural land on the Nile in Sudan in February on a 99-year lease basis at $0.5 per acre annually with full irrigation rights and will grow crops such as maize, sorghum and sugar, he said. Citadel’s mining company Asek Co. for Mining said this month it won a concession in Sudan to mine for limestone that will provide raw material for Citadel’s cement company.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the largest recipients of private equity investment in the Middle East for the past four years, according a report by the Gulf Venture Capital Association in March.

It’s unlikely that Citadel will take any companies public in 2009 and 2010 because of unfavorable market conditions, El- Khazindar said. The firm has also put its own plans to sell shares to the public on hold, he said.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Mahmoud Kassem at mkassem1@bloom

Citadel Capital of Egypt May Spend Up to $500 Million

By Mahmoud Kassem

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Citadel Capital, an Egyptian private- equity firm that has $8.3 billion in investments, may spend as much as $500 million in industries including mining and agriculture in the second half as asset prices become more attractive in the Middle East and Africa.

“It could be as little as $50 million and as much as $500 million,” Hisham El-Khazindar, managing director and co-founder of the Cairo-based firm, said in an interview at his office on May 7. Expectations of sellers “are now at reasonable levels vis-à-vis the inflated expectations that may have existed a year, a year and a half ago,” he said.

Private-equity firms are struggling to raise funds as the credit crisis makes it harder to finance acquisitions. The firms have announced $26 billion of acquisitions this year, less than a quarter of the deals led in the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The crisis is also making asset sales less lucrative.

Private-equity investors in the Middle East manage more than $25 billion, Dubai-based buyout firm Abraaj Capital Ltd. said in October. “There is no doubt that the fund-raising environment is more challenging for everyone,” El-Khazindar said. “Whether we’ve bottomed out already or we’re close to bottoming out, it’s very clear that valuations are compelling.”

‘Significant Opportunities’

Citadel, which controls 19 companies operating in the region, will tap the $900 million it raised in the second half of 2008 from investors mostly in the Persian Gulf to fund its spending, he said. The firm will probably use some of the money to finance existing businesses in other industries it works in such as energy, transport and financial services, and may buy distressed companies or publicly traded ones, El-Khazindar said.

“We like industries where we can create players that not only will be significant players at the local regional level but that will also be globally competitive,” he said. “When you look at Egypt, when you look at Algeria, when you look at Libya, when you look at Sudan but being mindful of sanctions etc., when you look at Ethiopia, Syria, Iraq, there are very significant opportunities.”

Citadel secured 250,000 acres of agricultural land on the Nile in Sudan in February on a 99-year lease basis at $0.5 per acre annually with full irrigation rights and will grow crops such as maize, sorghum and sugar, he said. Citadel’s mining company Asek Co. for Mining said this month it won a concession in Sudan to mine for limestone that will provide raw material for Citadel’s cement company.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the largest recipients of private equity investment in the Middle East for the past four years, according a report by the Gulf Venture Capital Association in March.

It’s unlikely that Citadel will take any companies public in 2009 and 2010 because of unfavorable market conditions, El- Khazindar said. The firm has also put its own plans to sell shares to the public on hold, he said.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Mahmoud Kassem at mkassem1@bloom

5/01/2009

Le pari mondial de la croissance verte


lemonde.fr, Antoine Reverchon, le 2 février 2009

Aide fiscale aux énergies renouvelables et à l’amélioration de l’efficacité énergétique des bâtiments, rénovation du réseau électrique, subventions à la recherche et au développement de produits et de services moins polluants dans l’industrie et les transports, normes environnementales plus sévères… L’une, l’autre ou plusieurs de ces mesures se retrouvent dans le plan de relance de 819 milliards de dollars (639 milliards d’euros) voté par la Chambre des représentants américaine le mercredi 28 janvier, et dans le plan de relance de 26 milliards d’euros adopté par le Parlement français le lendemain, dont les mesures devaient être détailléees le 2 février par le premier ministre, François Fillon.

Mais au-delà des effets attendus à court terme sur l’emploi et l’activité, ce ” verdissement ” des plans de relance, que l’on retrouve en Chine, en Allemagne, au Japon, pose les jalons du basculement d’un modèle économique basé sur le pétrole et responsable du réchauffement climatique, vers un modèle gérant au mieux les ressources de la planète.

Barack Obama s’est inspiré du programme ” Repower America ” élaboré par Al Gore, l’ancien vice président de Bill Clinton, qui prévoit de mettre en place en dix ans un modèle énergétique rendant les Etats-Unis indépendants du pétrole, et donc des pays producteurs. La double signification de power (pouvoir et énergie) prend ici tout son sens. Il s’agit de changer de système économique et de résoudre un problème de sécurité nationale. En France, 35 % des investissements prévus par le plan ” anticipent sur l’application du Grenelle de l’environnement “actuellement discuté au Sénat, a affirmé Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, l’ex-secrétaire d’Etat à l’environnement.

Mais le risque est alors de voir l’argent public s’engouffrer dans des secteurs ou des technologies non viables. Ceci simplement parce qu’ils bénéficient d’un meilleur lobbying ou d’un effet de mode, redoute l’économiste américain Robert Bell (City University of NewYork M. Bell a mis en évidence les gaspillages engendrés par certains choix technologiques à Washington. De même, ajoute-t-il, des incitations fiscales, couplées au comportement mimétique des marchés financiers, peuvent conduire les investisseurs à créer une nouvelle bulle financière sur la ” green tech”.

Pour que les pouvoirs publics, mais aussi les agents économiques – entreprises, investisseurs et consommateurs – ne s’égarent pas dans un maquis de promesses parées des vertus de l’écologie, les économistes estiment que les prix des biens et services consommés doivent intégrer le coût de leurs effets réels sur le climat, via un prix par tonne de CO2. Seul ce ” signal prix “, indique Cédric Philibert, économiste à l’Agence internationale de l’énergie, peut inciter les industriels à investir dans des technologies propres, les investisseurs à mesurer le risque de leurs choix, les ménages à adopter un mode de consommation plus durable.

L’économiste britannique Terry Barker(Cambridge) a même mis au point un modèle économique montrant que plus le prix du carbone est élevé, plus les investissements massifs que cette contrainte entraîne génèrent une croissance forte, explique son collègue Patrick Criqui (université de Grenoble) . Mais les économistes se divisent sur l’instrument le plus apte à émettre le signal prix : le marché, où entreprises et Etats échangent les tonnes de CO2 au-delà ou en deçà des quotas qu’ils sont autorisés à émettre ? Ou bien la fiscalité, qui taxerait les biens et les services au prorata de leur teneur en carbone ? Les risques de volatilité excessive du prix de la tonne de carbone sur un marché d’autant plus imparfait qu’il n’inclut pas les émissions de l’Inde ou de la Chine font préférer la solution de la taxe carbone à certains. Le directeur de la recherche de la NASA, James Hansen, ou l’économiste Jeffrey Sachs se sont prononcés en sa faveur en attendant l’arbitrage de M. Obama, arguant du fait qu’une taxe fournit aux acteurs économiques un signal clair et constant.

M. Hansen préconise d’en reverser le produit aux ménages afin de relancer la consommation. Jean-Charles Hourcade, directeur du Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement (Cired), propose que qu’elle soit compensée par une diminution des charges sociales, afin de protéger la compétitivité des entreprises… et de relancer l’emploi. Mais commele fait remarquer Benoît Leguet (mission Climat de la Caisse des dépôts et consignations), ” les tentatives d’instaurer une taxe carbone ont toutes échoué ” face à l’hostilité à l’impôt.

Il préconise donc le développement de marchés carbone sectoriels et régionaux, la probabilité d’un marché mondial étant suspendue à un accord international qui sera long à venir. Mais il faudrait pour cela que les quotas attribués soient payants, afin que le carbone ait un prix dès la première tonne émise. Ce n’est pas le choix qui a été fait par l’Union européenne lors de l’adoption du paquet Energie-Climat le 12 décembre 2008 : la plupart des quotas seront gratuits. Ce qui, ajouté à la réticence à adopter une taxe carbone, fait douter l’économiste Olivier Godard, de l’Ecole polytechnique, de la réelle volonté des politiques de s’engager en faveur d’une économie verte. Faute d’une incitation par le prix, ni les entreprises ni les ménages n’abandonneront facilement leur addiction aux énergies fossile.