Matières Premières : Un Secteur agricole trop concentré cause première de l’envolée des prix ?

Alain Butler l ’expert en matières agricoles de BNP Paribas (Suisse) à Genève met en avant la concentration du marché agricole pour expliquer la récente hausse du prix des matières premières.

Alain Butler ne croit que ce qu’il voit. C’est pour cela qu’il passe la plupart de son temps sur le terrain, à la rencontre des acteurs du secteur agricole. La confrontation entre sa connaissance des marchés globaux et son ancrage dans la réalité des marchés physiques lui confère ainsi une légitimité toute particulière pour évoquer la hausse des prix actuelle. Réfutant la thèse de l’importance de la spéculation sur la direction des prix, il apporte un éclairage pratique aux développements du secteur.

La concentration géographique des zones de production est selon lui l’une des causes majeure de la volatilité des cours car elle les rend vulnérables au moindre incident climatique ou trouble politique. Mais il affirme que la tendance actuelle est à la déconcentration. D’une part, les investisseurs veulent diversifier leurs risques en privilégiant la complémentarité géographique, au travers des petits pays producteurs. D’autre part, les gouvernements des pays émergents ont dépassé le paradigme des cultures d’exportation pour enfin développer les cultures vivrières. Cette double dynamique devrait donc à long-terme permettre une baisse naturelle la volatilité des cours en assurant un approvisionnement plus constant du marché mondial

ENTRETIEN






Les origines structurelles de la flambée des prix

. Les facteurs conjoncturels n’expliquent pas à eux seuls l’envolée des denrées dans le monde .

Olivier Pellegrinelli /Agefi En quoi la hausse du prix des matières premières agricoles actuelle diffère-t-elle de 2007-2008?

Alain Butler. (BNP Parribas Suisse). Il y a quatre ans, c’était la première fois que le monde était confronté à une telle envolée des prix.

L’importance relative des facteurs qui ont pu contribuer au-delà des mauvaises récoltes qui ont précédé à cette augmentation agressive des cours – notamment, intervention des fonds d’investissement, développement des biocarburants et incertitudes macroéconomiques – est toujours débattue aujourd’hui par les experts. Il est probable que certains de ces facteurs jouent toujours un rôle dans la hausse actuelle mais le déclencheur incontestable a été la brusque détérioration de l’offre liée à de mauvaises récoltes causées par des sécheresses en Russie et en Argentine, ou des inondations en Australie et au Pakistan. Cette baisse de disponibilité s’est de plus matérialisée simultanément sur la majorité des matières premières agricoles.


Quel rôle le pétrole joue t-il dans la fixation des prix agricoles?


Il est certainement moins important que pour d’autres matières premières. Les cours du pétrole influencent bien entendu les coûts de production agricoles, mais les marchés agricoles répondent à une demande relativement captive et, une fois produites, elles doivent in fine être vendues peu importe leur coût de production car elles sont périssables. La demande en produits agricoles est relativement prévisible, contrairement à l’offre qui peut fluctuer fortement d’une année à l’autre, ce qui rend les cours vulnérables à de fortes hausses ou à des baisses.

Comment les marchés des contrats à terme influencent-ils les cours physiques?

Aujourd’hui, les marchés agricoles sont mondiaux et les interactions entre chaque région de la planète sont toujours plus importantes. Les prix locaux sont donc fortement influencés par les prix internationaux. Les contrats à terme reflètent principalement l’anticipation des cours futurs. Certains producteurs utilisent également leur connaissance des cours à terme pour décider quelles cultures planter et ainsi maximiser leur profit. L’influence est donc réciproque entre les cours des contrats à termes et ceux des marchés physiques.


La présence des fonds d’investissement sur les contrats à terme constitue-t-elle un facteur de volatilité important?

L’activité des fonds d’investissement peut avoir un effet amplificateur à court terme mais en aucun cas elle ne peut fixer la direction des cours. Ce sont toujours les déséquilibres physiques et leur interprétation par les acteurs de marché qui se trouvent à la base du mécanisme qui fixe l’orientation des prix. Ainsi, les positions dites « spéculatives « ne peuvent à elles seules expliquer l’augmentation du prix des matières premières et n’ont qu’une influence relativement limitée sur le niveau absolu des prix à long terme.

Quels autres facteurs contribuent à augmenter la volatilité des cours?


Incontestablement, la gestion de l’information a un rôle fondamental dans la volatilité quotidienne des cours. Depuis l’émergence d’internet et de la téléphonie mobile, l’information circule beaucoup plus vite, même dans les régions productrices parfois reculées. Les agriculteurs peuvent donc réagir face aux cours mondiaux, en négociant leurs prix, voire en stockant plus longtemps une partie de leur récolte si leur liquidité le permet. De plus, du fait de la diffusion rapide de l’information, des simples effets d’annonce peuvent avoir des implications beaucoup plus importantes sur les cours. Quand le département américain de l’agriculture publie son rapport mensuel, toute la chaîne de valeur y a accès au même moment. Il y a plus d’une dizaine d’années, l’environnement n’était pas propice à une telle vitesse de diffusion de l’information.

Pourquoi les matières agricoles telles que le cacao, le coton ou le sucre ont-elles flambées récemment?


Il s’agit là aussi de l’augmentation de l’incertitude liée à l’offre à court et moyen termes de ces denrées. Toutes ces cultures sont de plus extrêmement concentrées géographiquement, ce qui rend les cours mondiaux sensibles vis-à-vis des évènements climatiques et politiques dans les grands pays producteurs. Cette année, la crise ivoirienne pour le cacao ou le gel en Floride pour le jus d’orange, en sont de parfaits exemples. Dans le cas du coton, il faut savoir que des producteurs avaient fortement réduit leurs surfaces cultivées parce que le soja était relativement plus rentable. Au moment de la reprise économique, l’offre s’est retrouvée largement déficitaire pour répondre à une nouvelle demande globale de textile liée à la reprise économique ce qui a poussé les prix du coton vers le haut.

Comment voyez-vous l’évolution de ces marchés à moyen terme?

Les cultures en général vont selon moi connaître un phénomène de déconcentration dans les années à venir. Suite à la crise alimentaire de 2007/2008, les gouvernements des pays en voie de développement sont en train de favoriser les cultures vivrières destinées à l’autosuffisance alimentaire, au détriment des cultures de rentes destinée à l’exportation et autrefois encouragées par le consensus de Washington. De plus, les investisseurs cherchent à réduire leurs risques en diversifiant l’origine géographique de leurs produits. Cette tendance va donc contribuer à diminuer la volatilité des prix car elle réduira l’importance des événements climatiques et politiques.

La corrélation de prix entre chaque matière première a considérablement augmenté depuis quelques années. Pourquoi?

Les cours sont plus corrélés qu’avant car les opportunités pour substituer les denrées à d’autres sont beaucoup plus nombreuses. Plus les marchés grandissent, plus les acheteurs finaux trouvent les opportunités de remplacer un tourteau de soja par un tourteau de colza par exemple. De même, plus la capacité industrielle de transformation des denrées augmente, plus la flexibilité pour saisir ces opportunités est grande. Le fait que le financement des marchés agricoles soit de mieux en mieux organisé favorise aussi des opportunités de substitution. Ainsi, comme dans les principes fondamentaux de l’économie, plus les produits agricoles deviennent substituables, plus leurs prix seront corrélés.

interview:
Olivier Pellegrinelli /Agefi



EN COMPLEMENT : La crise libyenne fait plonger le prix du coton

La livre de fibre blanche, qui valait encore 75 cents début 2010, avait bondi à plus de deux dollars la semaine précédente les opérateurs s’inquiétant de la faiblesse de l’offre sur la planète

Les prix du coton se sont fortement repliés cette semaine à New York, entraînés par les angoisses des marchés financiers alors que la crise libyenne tournait à la répression sanglante et entraînait une envolée des cours du pétrole.

«Les spéculateurs ont semblé soudain pressés de retirer de l’argent de la table», ont commenté les analystes de la maison de courtage Plexus Cotton. «Ce qui devait être une relativement faible correction a pris une forte ampleur, surtout en raison de l’incertitude sur le front géopolitique», ont-ils ajouté.

Le marché du coton est particulièrement sensible à la conjoncture économique et connaît régulièrement de fortes variations en fonction de la confiance des investisseurs en la reprise économique.

La perspective d’une crise majeure au Moyen-Orient a donc concentré toutes les inquiétudes, de même que l’envolée des cours du pétrole, qui si elle se prolongeait pourrait constituer un choc important pour l’économie mondiale.

L’indice Cotlook A, moyenne quotidienne des cinq prix du coton les plus faibles sur le marché physique dans les ports d’Orient, retombait vendredi à 209,30 dollars (pour 100 livres), contre 233,50 dollars en fin de semaine précédente soit une baisse de 10%…Le Prix de la spéculation ?

Commodity Fund Inflows Surge to $4 Billion in February: Lipper

By Reuters
Monday, March 21, 2011 3:50:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters)—Investors plowed more than $4 billion into commodity-based products and mutual funds in February, the most in nine months, favoring agricultural markets, silver and broad index funds, Lipper data showed.

Inflows to U.S.-regulated "commodity products" rebounded to $4.05 billion last month, from just $38 million in January, according to data tracking funds that invest directly in physical commodities or derivatives, not corporate securities. It was the highest since $6.3 billion in May 2010 and the third-largest one-month inflow on record.

The surge helped elevate total net assets in the funds to $151.4 billion, from $142.4 billion at the end of January. That makes up about half the total net length of index funds tracking commodity markets, including swaps and other unregulated vehicles, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

To view a graphic on the data, click here: http://r.reuters.com/sux58r.
To see the CFTC data click here: http://r.reuters.com/hym38r.

Inflows climbed as markets recovered from an early January slump to post a 3.3 percent return for the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, with oil prices igniting on turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, corn scaling new post-2008 peaks on concerns over low stocks and sugar touching a 30-year high. But as markets faltered in March amid escalating uncertainty and instability, the flow may not last. The CRB is down 0.8 percent so far, its first decline in seven months.

"We expect outflows in March given the heightened volatility," said Edward Meir, senior commodities analyst at global futures brokerage MF Global.

The rising flow of investor capital into commodities—aided by the advent of mutual and exchange-traded funds that allow institutions to avoid the complex futures markets and invest as they would into stocks or bonds—has fueled intense debate about whether speculators artificially inflate prices. While numerous studies have sought to disprove any causal link, most analysts agree that multi-billion-dollar allocation shifts into the relatively smaller, less-liquid commodity markets can have a short-term impact on prices.

Markets Bounced

The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund, which invests in grains, softs and livestock markets tracking the DJ-UBS Agriculture Index, attracted the greatest inflows of $522 million, taking net assets to $3.7 billion. The underlying index rose 0.9 percent in February.

Investors continued to shift their gold holdings into the iShares Gold Trust, which saw a net inflow of nearly $350 million, and out of the SPDR Gold Shares, which remains the biggest fund with nearly $55 billion. Experts have said the iShares vehicle's lower fees are attracting interest.

The iShares silver trust attracted $315 million as prices outpaced gold.

While Brent crude oil posted its best monthly gain since May 2009 as Libyan oil exports were halted by violence, U.S. crude prices lagged due to a glut of landlocked oil. The U.S. Oil Fund witnessed a net outflow in February, mostly reversing inflows in January.

The biggest commodity mutual fund operator, PIMCO, continued to attract sizable investment, with the CommoditiesPLUS Strategy Fund for institutional investors drawing in $326 million. The biggest RealReturn fund attracted $276 million to rise to $18.3 billion. The PLUS fund is benchmarked against the Credit Suisse Commodity Benchmark, while the RealReturn fund uses the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return index.

The data does not include fund holdings of over-the-counter indices or direct investment in futures or physical commodities, or hedge funds. Lipper's historical data includes only funds that are currently in operation.

Dell fund raises $780 mln for energy investment

Tue, Mar 8 2011
NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - MSD Capital, a private investment firm for Dell Inc (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) founder and chief executive Michael Dell and his family, raised about $780 million for an energy hedge fund, according to a regulatory filing.

The filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed MSD Energy Partners raised a total of $779.86 million. (Writing by Ritsuko Ando; Editing by Gary Hill)

Mellon Capital Management Launches commodities strategy

By wendy.chothia
Created 08/03/2011 - 10:00

Mellon Capital Management, part of BNY Mellon Asset Management, has launched its Commodity Alpha Long-Bias Strategy, a commodities strategy designed to provide institutional investors with diversification beyond equities and fixed income and to provide a hedge against inflation.

The strategy is designed to add value by taking long and short positions in futures contracts for a range of liquid commodities including energy, precious metals, industrial metals, grains, livestock and other agricultural products. The strategy's managers seek positions in the commodities markets that appear attractive by evaluating various factors that can influence commodity futures prices.

"The commodities markets offer distinct investment opportunities as many of its participants are in these markets for reasons other than maximising investment profits," says Eric Goodbar, managing director and alternatives strategist for Mellon Capital. "For example, producers, processors and consumers of commodities trade to lock in physical delivery or hedge their profit margins."

While maintaining a net long position, the strategy generally uses longer-dated futures contracts and takes long or short positions in contracts with positive roll returns with the goal of mitigating the costs associated with rolling futures.

Zambia: Rich African farms draw international investors

TradeInvest Africa | 2 March 2011

Nelly Nyagah

"We have worked with the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), a member of the World Bank Group, to obtain political risk insurance on our investments," says Neil Crowder, a founding partner at British firm Chayton Africa, which recently acquired a 20,000 ha farm in Zambia.
Private investment in Africa's agriculture is rising. Neil Crowder, a founding partner at British firm Chayton Africa, which recently acquired a farm in Zambia tells TradeInvestAfrica that he intends to focus on the continent's markets where opportunities abound.

International investors who previously avoided Africa's agriculture are now looking at the sector. What has changed?

There is a growing interest in African agriculture, not only from private equity investors with a traditional focus on Africa, but also from investors who have not historically considered Africa. We think there are several reasons for this growing trend. First and foremost, agriculture as a broad investment theme has increasingly gained momentum in the past several years. While agriculture previously displayed cyclical, commodity-type returns, there are now signs that we are entering a period of sustainable growth. This is being driven by a variety of global factors including rising population, rising income levels in emerging markets, and a growing scarcity of arable land and water.

Africa itself is showing demographic factors that suggest a rapidly rising demand for food in the coming decades: economic growth across the continent compares favourably with growth in traditional markets and the foundation for investing has been steadily improving across many of the countries in Africa, with better transparency and a more stable legal framework.

Finally, valuations remain attractive in Africa. With land available at prices that are attractive in an international context, much of sub-Saharan Africa benefits from rich soil and a climate that allows for double-cropping, or two crops per year. This leads to the potential, in well structured investments, for high productivity and strong cash returns relative to other agricultural markets.

Investors are treading carefully, as it is a new asset class for many. As a result, investments that have been well structured with proper governance and control will likely be sought after. Investors are fortunate to have available a wide range of tools to mitigate risk. As an example, we have worked with the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), a member of the World Bank Group, to obtain political risk insurance on our investments. In our view, such coverage is a beneficial protection mechanism for our investors and provides comfort to those concerned about the types of risk typically present in the region.

How do you see your investment in Zambia contributing to food security, affordability and technology transfer in southern African?

Chayton Capital has a very specific investment strategy. We believe that the domestic markets within Africa will experience the same kind of secular growth we are seeing globally, perhaps to an even greater extent. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are relatively large net importers of food. As a result, we believe that properly managed commercial farming operations in the region will benefit from the secular trends in the region.

Zambia is an attractive market and we selected it as the country in which to make our first investments. With good availability of land and abundant water, the location is also attractive as several neighbouring markets are importing food. Additionally, the country has a very good investment climate and is a relatively easy place to do business.

We are in the process of aggregating 20,000 hectares of production in one specific region of the country. We intend to focus on primary food crops such as maize, soya and wheat. By achieving scale in production we will be able to upstream the business into storage, milling and transportation. The total investment required for this investment is roughly $85-million. Once established, our project will have numerous competitive advantages. The scale of the operations will allow us to overcome some of the infrastructure issues that mid-sized commercial farmers are challenged with, often due to lack of capital and expertise.

Our production model is technologically advanced. Cropping is done under full irrigation and we employ conservation tillage practices, an environmentally friendly style of farming that lowers the cost of operations, reduces erosion, and enhances soil fertility. By concentrating our assets in one geographic location, we are able to better utilise the capital we are putting into the project.

Additionally, by establishing a meaningful presence in one specific region, we are able to work closely with the community on an out-grower basis. This means we can provide training on soil management, inputs and the use of our capital investments. As a result, the overall productivity in the region rises.

Which areas of the agribusiness sector are the most profitable?

We believe that a successful agribusiness investment that incorporates primary production must include other elements in the value chain such as processing, storage and transportation. We are interested in expanding in all of these sectors. Geographically, we are looking to markets that meet our requirements for investment, including secure availability of water and access to markets. Additionally, we look for political stability and a good legal framework for land investments. We have identified Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania as target markets for our investments.

Where is the potential for linking small-scale farmers to larger agribusiness supply chains?

Traditional small-scale farmers in Africa face many challenges, including limited access to markets, availability of inputs and often a lack of education on effective farming techniques and soil management. Our strategy of building large scale 'production hubs' allows us to overcome many of the challenges within Africa. Our scale will allow us to build related businesses that not only support our operations but support the small-scale farmers in the region. We can provide the community with access to inputs and access to markets. At the same time, by working with the local farming community, we can help enhance their ability to increase productivity on their farms. There is a clear benefit to the community, but our business benefits by greater use of our operating businesses.

Why isn't Africa attracting enough international investors despite the potential benefits of investing in agriculture?

Investment activity into agriculture is increasing within Africa, but there is still a need for greater commitment of capital from investors outside Africa. While there have been well publicised investments made by Middle Eastern and Far Eastern investors looking for food security, we have also seen growing interest from more traditional international private equity investors. Although it has been slow to develop, there has been a noticeable increase in activity over the past year. Further, we would put the pace of investing in context: according to a recently released MIGA report, following the onset of the global financial crisis, in 2009 FDI inflows to developing countries dropped by 40%. The good news is that as the global recovery continues to strengthen, these inflows are projected to increase and it is our view that the agriculture sector in Africa should benefit.

We believe that over the past year investors have largely been educating themselves on the potential returns and risks associated with an investment in Africa; in a global context, it remains a frontier market. It will take time for the continent to be considered more mainstream amongst traditional investors. However, we have seen an dramatic increase in our activities in the past year and I am sure this is reflected at other firms as well.

How would you advise international investors interested in farming in Africa?

I think there is an extremely compelling case for investing in agriculture in Africa. A properly structured investment, we believe, will generate superior returns to any we have looked at in other emerging markets around the globe. However, Africa has its own challenges and nuances across the continent and each country is different in terms of the investment framework. Investors need to take the time to understand the issues specific to Africa to judge if any investment is well-researched, structured and that it will be well managed over time.


Neil joined Chayton Capital from Goldman Sachs where he was a partner managing director. Most recently, Neil was co-heead of European Research and co-chief operating officer of the Global Investment Research Division. Prior to Goldman Sachs, Neil worked for American Express and St. Paul Companies gaining both direct and indirect real estate investment and workout experience.

Chayton Africa seeks to make pioneering investments in African agriculture, agribusiness and related infrastructure and intends to unlock the potential of agricultural land and assets by optimising production and operational efficiency across the agricultural value chain.