La Suisse peine à instaurer un projet énergétique global

Le Temps Par Philippe Miauton, Berne

Le PS revendique un plan conjoncturel de 6 milliards
Moritz Leuenberger au Sommet du développement durable à Delhi, Moritz Leuenberger au Forum ministériel mondial sur l’environnement à Nairobi; le conseiller fédéral chargé de l’énergie multiplie les voyages. Lors de la présentation du deuxième programme conjoncturel du Conseil fédéral, le Zurichois a en revanche brillé par son absence, alors qu’avec 421 millions, son département s’est taillé la part du lion de l’enveloppe totale. Dans les milieux politiques et scientifiques, la déception était palpable, notamment parce que la valorisation de l’énergie ne représentait, au final, qu’une part congrue (lire ci-dessous).

A l’aune de ce qui se passe dans le domaine des transports – AlpTransit, fonds pour le trafic d’agglomération et futur développement de l’infrastructure (ZEB) –, on peut mesurer le retard qui existe dans l’approche des projets énergétiques.

Mesures au compte-gouttes

«Une foule de dossiers dans les transports et les infrastructures étaient prêts, confie un proche du dossier; ils ont été introduits dans le deuxième programme de relance. Dans le domaine de l’énergie, ce n’était malheureusement pas le cas.»

Pourtant, selon Michael Kaufmann, vice-directeur de l’Office ­fédéral de l’énergie (OFEN), «il ressort des programmes d’encouragement précédents ainsi que des programmes cantonaux actuels, sans oublier le programme bâtiments de la Fondation centime climatique, que des aides fédérales de 100 millions de francs par an dans ce secteur, sur une période de 10 ans, s’accompagneraient d’au moins 3 milliards de francs d’investissements privés.» Sans compter les nombreux emplois que ces investissements généreraient.

Dernièrement, et plus encore depuis la semaine passée, des voix s’élèvent pour demander que la Suisse lance, elle aussi, son propre «green deal», un plan de relance qui stimulerait à la fois l’économie et l’écologie, voire la première via la seconde.

Mais c’est surtout le plan de Barack Obama qui a suscité beaucoup d’espoir. En décembre, les Verts appelaient de leurs vœux un vaste changement de paradigme énergétique. Suivis le week-end dernier par le président du PDC, Christophe Darbellay. Vendredi, c’était au tour des socialistes de critiquer le Conseil fédéral, qui, contrairement à l’Allemagne ou aux Etats-Unis, n’a pas réalisé qu’il devait mettre à profit la crise économique et les plans de relance pour accélérer les réformes structurelles de son économie. Ils revendiquent un programme conjoncturel d’environ 6 milliards de francs pour doper le domaine de l’énergie. Mais existe-t-il seulement en Suisse un projet chapeautant un grand nombre de domaines, auquel on pourrait coller l’étiquette de «green deal»?

Au sein de l’OFEN, on reconnaît qu’il manque encore une certaine cohésion entre les différents dossiers énergétiques. «Beaucoup de filières ont été ouvertes séparément, après avoir livré de nombreuses batailles au parlement», observe Michael Kaufmann. Et d’ajouter: «En l’espace de quatre ans, nous avons défini une nouvelle loi sur le marché électrique, une autre sur l’approvisionnement énergétique et nous avons mis sur pied la rétribution à prix coûtant pour encourager le courant renouvelable.»

Pour beaucoup, la faute est à imputer au système politique suisse qui saucissonne les multiples domaines énergétiques au lieu de les considérer comme une seule et même problématique, pour laquelle il faudrait fixer des objectifs ambitieux. Pour le socialiste Roger Nordmann, membre de la Commission de l’énergie, des transports et de l’environnement, «la Suisse est dans l’incapacité de se projeter dans l’avenir, d’où ces lenteurs de procédures».

Retenue de l’Etat

La mise sur pied de fonds dévolus à l’assainissement des bâtiments, qui absorbent à eux seuls près de la moitié de l’énergie consommée en Suisse et qui génèrent la moitié des rejets de CO2, est exemplaire. Quelques parlementaires se battent depuis près d’une année pour obtenir quelques centaines de millions supplémentaires pour accélérer le mouvement.

Un grand nombre d’observateurs constate que la Confédération s’interdit d’investir directement dans les entreprises, de peur de devenir un pourvoyeur de crédits. Il privilégie au contraire des systèmes d’incitations compliqués. «L’Etat ne joue pas assez son rôle de moteur», observe un membre de l’OFEN.

«Pour échafauder un véritable plan vert qui ait un effet psychologique sur les sphères politique, économique et sur la population, il faudrait que Moritz Leuenberger en soit le promoteur», fait remarquer un parlementaire socialiste. Un responsable du DETEC observe quant à lui que «le ministre craint beaucoup trop de perdre au Conseil fédéral en présentant des projets visionnaires. Il fixe de nombreux objectifs ambitieux comme la réduction de 20% des émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’ici à 2020, mais il ne parvient pas à mettre sur pied un programme complet pour y tendre».

London Firm Ramps Up Hedge Fund, Cleantech Teams

February 19, 2009 FinAlternatives

EEA Group, the London-based equity, environmental and alternative investment firm, has appointed former TT International partner John Hobson as CEO. EEA, which has over £1 billion (US$1.2 billion) in assets under management and advisement, created the new role to support management’s running of its global business.

Hobson will further expand the range of the group’s products by developing and managing the EEA hedge fund business. He was at TT for 10 years, where he was a European and then Japanese long-only fund manager before starting the TT Midcap European Long/Short hedge fund in 2004. He starts at EEA on March 1.

Last month, the firm hired Francisco Avendaño role as an investment adviser to its clean energy investment team in Latin America to take advantage of “exciting” opportunities in the region. In a 12-year career spanning the U.S., the European Union and Latin America, Avendaño has worked for governments, emissions trading specialists and energy companies.

In his new role with EEA, based in Lima, Peru, Avendaño will identify clean technology projects in Latin America for investment.

“We are focusing on strong and stable economies in Latin America, where we see exciting investment opportunities,” said Simon Shaw, chairman of EEA.

CDC Commits To Two Microfinance Funds

February 19, 2009 FinAlternative

CDC Group, the U.K. government-backed private equity emerging markets fund of funds, is making new commitments totaling US$35 million to two funds investing in microfinance.

The group has allocated US$20 million to the India Financial Inclusion Fund, managed by Caspian Capital Partners, which provides growth capital and strategic support to existing and start-up microfinance institutions, ranging from small non-profit organizations to large commercial banks. The fund invests solely in India, with an emphasis on towns in rural areas with low microfinance penetration.

CDC also committed US$15 million to Catalyst Microfinance Investors, which will invest in a network of rapidly growing greenfield microfinance institutions in India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Ghana.

“Around 400 million people do not have access to formal, affordable financial services in India,” said Hywel Rees-Jones, managing director at CDC. “The India Financial Inclusion Fund will improve funding to microfinance institutions, bringing improved credit opportunities in much needed regions. Caspian Capital Partners have proven their ability to increase microfinance penetration in India, contributing to the growth of the sector and making a lasting developmental impact in rural regions.”

Masdar Clean Tech Fund Soldiers On

January 28, 2009 FinAlternatives
Abu Dhabi's Masdar Clean Tech Fund, a $250 million private equity fund, announced Monday it would press on with plans to spend billions on renewable energy projects despite the financial crisis and falling oil prices.

Masdar's Headquarters“The current financial situation has no impact whatsoever on Masdar’s intended and planned projects. Our appetite is still the same and we are still pursuing and proceeding with all the projects already announced and we also have an appetite to look for the right opportunities,” said Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Masdar, at a press conference at the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi last week.

Masdar's plans include an agreement with the Seychelles government to invest in wind energy, solar energy and waste-to-energy technologies, full details of which are to be announced on Tuesday.

The Seychelles interest in clean tech is self-explanatory: the island state is under direct threat from rising sea levels associated with global warming. Phase one of the plan involves generating 18MW of electricity – enough to supply 15% of Mahé Island's total energy demand – from wind power.

Masdar aims to monetize the Seychelles' renewable energy projects by certifying them under the UN's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) offsetting scheme and then selling the resulting carbon credits.

The investment fund also announced plans to work with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to reduce gas flaring and promote energy efficiency in Nigeria – projects that will also apply for CDM certification.

Masdar currently has three projects in Spain and is building a solar manufacturing plant in Germany. In addition, it is continuing work on its $22 billion Masdar City, the world's first carbon-neutral, zero-waste city. The project has received $300 million in funding from the Abu Dhabi government.

U.S. Firm Launches Carbon Allowances Fund

February 11, 2009 - FinAlternatives

XShares Advisors, which specialized in exchange-traded products, has launched the AirShares EU Carbon Allowances Fund (NYSE Arca: ASO), a pool of EU carbon credits.

The fund, which began trading early this year, bills itself as the only exchange-traded equity product providing access to the fast-growing EU carbon market.

AirShares holds unleveraged long positions in a portfolio of European Climate Exchange Carbon Financial Instrument Futures Contracts (ECX CFI Futures Contracts), each of which provides for delivery of 1,000 European Union Allowances (EUAs) on a specified date at a specified price.

As contracts approach their December expiration, AirShares sells them and replaces them with contracts with later expirations.

AirShares is a passively managed equity product and does not track an index. Although the futures contracts held by AirShares and most of its assets are denominated in euros, the shares trade in U.S. dollars. Government-issued EUAs represent approximately two-thirds of the world’s carbon market.

Coffee Risks Squeezing Starbucks, Hedge Funds as Supply Drops

By Shruti Date Singh

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected coffee rally sparked by dwindling supplies risks squeezing Starbucks Corp., Kraft Foods Inc. and hedge funds betting on a decline.

Demand may exceed output by 8 million 60-kilogram bags in the coming year -- almost what Germany consumes -- and exporter stockpiles are the lowest since 1965, the International Coffee Organization said. Arabica coffee futures may jump 25 percent this year after falling for the first time since 2001 as output drops in Brazil and Colombia, the Western Hemisphere’s top two growers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Feb. 9.

“We see coffee prices increasing in 2009,” Sandra Bachofer, who helps manage $1.2 billion for Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “We expect coffee to be one of the most promising commodities in 2009.”

Expectations for a rebound show what happens when speculator-driven futures markets collide with real-world supply and demand. The rally would drive up costs for Seattle-based Starbucks and Kraft Foods’s Maxwell House, while enriching growers and increasing export revenue in countries such as Vietnam and Brazil.

While Fortis Bank says the recession may stall demand and keep prices in check, coffee is up 2.6 percent this year at $1.15 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. as of Feb. 13. Contracts for December delivery indicate the rally will continue.

Price Forecasts

Judith Ganes-Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York, said coffee may rise as much as 52 percent to $1.70 by June 30. Morgan Stanley forecast an average of $1.41 in the year starting Oct. 1, and Goldman Sachs predicted $1.40 in the next 12 months.

Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee chain, said Jan. 28 it expects “unfavorable” coffee costs in the year ending Sept. 30 to erode the benefit of lower dairy prices. The company said its cost of first-quarter sales rose 2.9 percentage points from a year earlier, partly because of higher coffee expenses.

“We are confident that we have the coffee we need and that increased premiums in specific countries will have little or no effect on our existing or future contracts,” Stacey Krum, a Starbucks spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

The company usually has supply commitments for a year to 18 months into the future, so the impact of changing coffee costs may take that long to show up in financial results, said Jeffrey Farmer, an analyst with Jefferies & Co. in Boston, who rates the shares a “hold.”

Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, the world’s second-largest food company, raised Maxwell House coffee prices twice in early 2008 as bean costs jumped, followed by three reductions. No price changes were made this year, spokeswoman Bridget MacConnell said.

Speculators

Higher prices may hurt hedge funds and other large speculators who sold 19,379 futures contracts valued at more than $864 million as of Feb. 10, based on the May delivery contract, in a bet that prices would fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Coffee fell 14 percent in the fourth quarter on the ICE exchange even as the premium for Colombian beans over the most- active New York futures jumped 54 percent, reflecting demand at a time when investors fled commodity markets. Open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, fell almost 10 percent.

“Coffee fell victim to massive fund liquidation” last year, said Roland Veit, chairman of importer Paragon Coffee Trading Co. in White Plains, New York. “The coffee market was driven too low for non-fundamental reasons.” Buyers in the physical market “started to ignore” futures that didn’t reflect supply and demand, he said.

Commodity Rally

Investors stocked up on commodity futures early last year, hoping to profit from rising demand for food, feed and fuel. A weakening dollar made raw materials priced in the currency more appealing for overseas buyers and as an inflation hedge.

The number of outstanding coffee futures in New York reached a record 204,360 contracts on Feb. 15, 2008. At 37,500 pounds per contract, that’s equal to almost half of all the coffee consumed globally last year. The surge in speculator holdings helped push the price to a 10-year high of $1.719 a pound on Feb. 29, 2008.

Then the credit crisis and the recession erased optimism about commodity demand and sparked a rush by investors to sell assets. From October through December, hedge funds and other large speculators were betting coffee prices would drop as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted the biggest quarterly decline since 1987. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities, after reaching a record high July 3, plunged 36 percent last year, the most in more than five decades.

By December, coffee reached a two-year low and open interest had fallen 39 percent from its record.

Colombia Premium

Tighter supplies are pushing up the cost of coffee from Colombia, where a growers group on Jan. 26 reported 2008 production dropped 9 percent to 11.5 million bags. The decline means export shipments “may arrive late” to some buyers, said Jorge Lozano, head of the Association of Colombian Exporters.

Colombian beans, embodied by the image of sombrero-clad Juan Valdez and his mule, cost 27.42 cents more than the price of most-active New York futures on Feb. 13. The premium reached 28.85 cents on Feb. 4, the highest since at least 2001.

Similar premiums were reported for Costa Rican and Guatemalan beans, according to a Feb. 6 report from analyst F.O. Licht of Ratzeburg, Germany.

Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. on Feb. 12 reached the lowest since July 2007. Stockpiles held by shippers fell 32 percent from a year earlier to 17.26 million bags on Oct. 1, partly because consumption in coffee-exporting countries jumped 37 percent in the past decade, ICO data show.

Production Deficit

The financial crisis also may contribute to reduced output, according to Tiberius Group’s Bachofer.

“Coffee is very labor intensive and requires lots of fertilizer,” she said. “Financial credit is not as available as before. This may lead to lower inputs in these two areas. The reduced fertilizer input will mainly have an impact on the marketing year 2010-2011.”

Global demand may reach 130 million bags, exceeding supply by 6 million to 8 million bags in the year that starts Oct. 1, said Nestor Osorio, the ICO’s executive director. Brazil estimates its harvest will drop as much as 20 percent to 36.9 million bags this year as trees enter the smaller phase of a two- year crop cycle.

“It’s a very tight market,” Osorio said in a telephone interview from London. “The supply will be in deficit. There are no reasons to believe prices could come down.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Shruti Date Singh in Chicago at ssingh28@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 17, 2009 00

Climate Change Increasingly Impacting Investment Decisions

ScienceDaily (Feb. 16, 2009) — New research by the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) with responses from 80 of CDP’s signatory investors across the globe revealed that three-quarters factor climate change information into their investment decisions and asset allocations.

Of these, more than 80% consider climate change to be important relative to other issues impacting their portfolio. Interestingly, some of the institutions surveyed revealed a willingness to go beyond requesting disclosure on climate change, such as asking companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

The research results* were released today as CDP announced the issue of its 2009 annual information request for climate change data to 3700 listed companies. The CDP request is made on behalf of institutional investors (signatory investors) with a combined $55 trillion of assets under management. The number of investors that signed the annual information request rose by almost a quarter to a record 475, compared with 385 in 2008, reflecting the rising importance of climate change within investment institutions.

Mercer, a leading global provider of consulting and investment services, analysed the survey results and compiled the report which summarises the ways in which CDP data is being used by investors. It includes responses from asset managers, pension funds, insurers and socially responsible investment funds including Allianz, AXA Group, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Hermes Investment Management and Swiss Re.

Other findings from the research include:

Four-fifths of respondents find CDP data useful and valuable
Carbon risk and potential legislation are the primary motivators for utilising CDP data
CDP is the leading source of climate change information among respondents
Corporate engagement emerged as the principal area in which investors are currently using CDP data, both as a stand alone resource and to back up information from other sources, however a number of investors also commented that systematically incorporating CDP data into financial analysis is in progress and a key goal.
Marc Fox, Vice President of GS SUSTAIN Research at Goldman, Sachs & Co, comments on the use of CDP data: "Climate change strategy, energy efficiency and carbon emissions are increasingly important aspects of companies' ability to uphold competitive advantage across global industries. We incorporate company responses to the Carbon Disclosure Project within our GS SUSTAIN Research methodology."

CDP’s Chief Operating Officer, Paul Simpson, comments: “Following clear indications, from the new US administration and other governments, we can expect to see a marked increase in climate change regulation globally. This will increase the materiality of climate change for investors and drive up costs for companies unable to manage their greenhouse gas inventories and our research shows that investors are already including climate change related issues into their investment decisions. In addition, a near 25% increase in signatories is a clear signal that institutional investors require listed companies to report to CDP as climate change related information becomes increasingly important to investment decisions.”

A total of 90 new investors joined CDP this year, including BBVA, National Bank of Canada, Hyundai Marine and Fire, Impax Group plc and Nordea Investment Management.

CDP’s information request focuses on the following areas that may affect the value of a company:

Comprehensive corporate greenhouse gas emissions data
Emissions reduction targets and use of energy
Risks and opportunities applicable to companies in relation to climate change
Management strategies to address climate change – including emissions trading
Companies have been asked to respond to CDP’s information request within four months. Individual corporate responses, plus analysis of the data, will be announced in a global launch this September, followed by a series of regional launches through to December and made available free of charge on CDP’s website at http://www.cdproject.net.

About the Research

The investor research was conducted at the end of 2008 with responses from 87 individuals at 80 of CDP’s signatory investors. A signatory investor is an institutional investor that has signed the information request sent out by CDP. The research was sponsored by HM Consulate General and Calvert Group.

Survey: Investors Optimistic About Alternative Energy Industry

February 5, 2009 CleanTechBrief
Investors are expecting big things from the alternative energy industry this year, according to a new survey. Fully half of investors and analysts participating in the survey expect alternative energy stocks to outperform the broader markets, according to the Waggener Edstrom Worldwide report.

Those polled say the new administration of U.S. President Barack Obama and an expected increase in oil prices will drive strong performance for alternative energy. Eighty-two percent say Obama’s election is “positive” or “very positive” for the industry, while 76% say that oil prices—which have plummeted amidst the current economic crisis—will either stabilize or rebound this year, buoying interest in alternative energy sources once again.

“Despite a deeply challenging business climate, the financial community continues to view alternative energy stocks with measured optimism,” Lev Janashvili, vice president of Waggener Edstrom’s global corporate communications practice, said. That optimism was apparently not substantially dimmed by the big losses suffered by many alternative energy investors last year, with several prominent indices covering the space falling by 70% or more.

Investors and industry players are most optimistic about energy storage and wind energy. Forty-three percent of respondents expect an above-average year for energy storage, while just 21% expect a below-average year. Likewise, 43% expect an above-average year for wind energy against 24% betting on a below-average year.

There is a good deal less hope for several other alternative energy sectors: Respondents were decidedly negative about biofuels, with 62% saying they expect a below-average year from the sector, while just 17% expect an above-average year. There is also negative sentiment about hydrogen and fuel cells, with 53% of respondents expecting a below-average year against 24% expecting an above-average performance. Wind energy gets somewhat more support, with 37% betting on a good year and 42% expecting below-average performance.

On the whole, the survey demonstrates a belief that the environment for alternative energy stocks will be a positive in their performance. In addition to optimism about the Obama administration, 85% said that U.S. government incentives will have a positive effect on the sector, with 68% saying the same about government incentives in Europe and 49% about incentives in Asia. One-third said that cap-and-trade policies in the U.S. will help alternative energy this year, while just 10% expect them to have a negative impact.

Which is not to say there are no potential minefields for alternative energy in 2009: Seventy-seven percent of respondents told Waggener Edstrom that access to capital will be a big problem this year. Another 43% say oil and gas prices will have a negative effect on the sector.

Still, almost all respondents expect gas prices to rise over the next three years, an important factor, as 53% also say that public interest and commercial investment in alternative energy declines alongside gas prices.

The report also took a close look at how the media covers the alternative investment industry. Alternative energy players have a decidedly negative view of how we in the press do our jobs, with 76% saying journalists and other media often overlook or are underinformed about important aspects of the industry. Just 57% said the same is true of media coverage of the traditional energy industries.

According to respondents, the mainstream media has a tendency toward a certain amount of irrational exuberance about alternative energy, while the more hard-nosed financial press is predisposed toward a negative view of the tree-huggers.

“Our coverage analysis provides support for respondents’ perceptions of mainstream media’s coverage of alternative energy, which featured prominently in the two presidential campaigns and in the communications of the new Obama administration,” Waggener Edstrom’s Daniel Gallagher said. “The industry enjoyed a predominantly hopeful narrative in the media, focused more on the promise of alternative energy, and less on the near-term challenges that account for the industry’s performance in 2008”

Of course, the industry players participating in the survey could be accused of irrational optimism themselves. Fifty percent expect an above-average year in terms of performance for alternative energy, but not one of the five subsectors garnered as much support as the overall industry.

“The survey reveals a tension between the financial community’s optimism about the long-term potential of alternative energy and the difficulty of identifying future leaders and survivors,” Janashvili said. “It is interesting, for example, that performance expectations for the broad category of alternative energy stocks are measurably higher than for any of the specific subcategories such as wind or solar.”

This week’s report is the first in a series on “Investors in Innovation” planned by Waggener Edstrom. The company surveyed 81 current or prospective institutional investors in alternative energy, including brokerage analysts covering the sector and other industry participants, such as private equity firms, direct investors and independent research firms. Most of the respondents are based in the U.S., with 29% based in Europe and 19% based elsewhere.

World Economic Forum Calls For More Investment In Clean Energy

Annual investments of $515 billion between now and 2030 will be required to effect a world transition to clean energy, according to a report released by the World Economic Forum during its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

The report says alternative energy technologies can address two serious world problems – energy security and climate change – but can also be a source of good financial returns.

The report urges governments to make clean-technology incentives and investments part of their economic stimulus projects.

"It is essential that this stimulus also build our capacity to solve the longer-term climate crisis. Well-meaning but short-sighted economic stimulus programs could lock us into a predominately fossil fuel-based world economy for decades," says the report.

The report advocates initiatives like retrofitting government buildings for increased energy efficiency, saying they can create jobs and lay the foundation for economic growth.

It also focuses on eight “large-scale, clean-energy sectors” that governments should promote including onshore wind; offshore wind; solar-photovoltaic energy; solar-thermal electricity generation; municipal solar energy; waste-to-energy generation; sugar-based ethanol, cellulosic and next-generation biofuels; and geothermal power.

The World Economic Forum would also like to see public-private investment mechanisms to redirect world capital flows into low-carbon and energy efficiency technologies, and the deployment of clean and affordable technologies to the poor “to help them leap-frog onto a low-carbon development trajectory.”