Point Carbon, the leading provider of analysis, advisory services and news for the environmental and energy markets, predicts that the global carbon market will see 4.2 billion tonnes CO2e transacted during 2008, up 56% on last year. At today’s prices, the market would be worth €63 billion ($92bn).
The figures, published in Carbon Market Analyst ”Outlook for 2008” see continued growth in the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), which Point Carbon reckons will be worth some €46 billion ($68bn) in 2008. Options and auctions contribute to the increased volume in the EU scheme this year.
“There are several reasons why we expect this growth. Most important, the tightness of the Phase 2 cap is expected to increase the traded volume compared to 2007 simply because more players are short of allowances. The proposed EU climate and energy package of 23 January this year further strengthens this tightness” said , Kjetil Røine, manager of Point Carbon’s Carbon Market Research team.
Point Carbon’s figures also show that developing countries continue to deliver reductions. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) saw transactions of 947 Mt in 2007 in the primary and secondary markets, producing a combined value of €12 billion ($17bn). However, Point Carbon expects the primary CDM market to shrink in 2008, while secondary transactions will continue to grow strongly. The forecast total volume of the CDM market in 2008 would be 1.2 bn tonnes CO2e, worth €15 billion ($22bn) at current prices.
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